SnakeWheel The Wheel of Time Collection
Military Movement

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From: mmajor@-SPAMSCHUTZ-bigdog.engr.arizona.edu (Michael Major)

The discussion on the military movement prediction for
_LoC_ is interesting, but it is somewhat incomplete.
There are some forces that have not been accounted for.

The threats KNOWN to Rand are (as far as I can remember):

1)  Sammael and the army of Illian to the south on the
border with Tear.  Figure about 40-70K warriors.
Also include some Fades and Trollics.

2)  the remnants of the Shaido to the north.  Figure at
least 30K and somewhat organized.  (They managed to retreat
across the bridges with some order and with all of their
prisoners.  Armies in disarray and being routed do NOT do
this.)

3)  the current occupants of the White Tower are not
necessarily friendly and their "ambassadors of goodwill"
are not out to find Rand just to say "Hello".  However,
this threat is minor; the White Tower is not about to
send out a military force against Rand since it cannot
compare to the forces commanded by Rand.  I expect more of
an attempt to send out teams of A.S. to be disguised and
attempting to get near enough to Rand to capture him.  
I also believe that this type of action will be anticipated
by Rand.  Besides, with Rand working on his frequent Gating
miles, these A.S. are going to get rather travel weary.

4)  the Seanchan.  It is clear that they intend to
invade again, possibly very soon.

5)  the rest of the Forsaken.  They are somewhere
and Rand does not know where they are nor where they will
strike from.

6)  Let's not forget those trollic armies that seem to
show up suddenly to boost the casualty lists.  They
can strike from anywhere.


The possible enemies that Rand is NOT aware of are (my memory
is a little more limited on this one, thus the usual disclaimers):

1)  Morgase is fetching the Whitecloaks to retake Andor.
The books say that she will not "let any man sit on her throne".
She had Lord Gaebrial[sp.] in mind when she said this, but I
doubt that it would take much for her to apply it to Rand.

2)  There seems to be a bit of a civil war occuring in Shienar[sp].
Although it is not clear what this is about, it is a pretty safe
bet that it involves Rand being the Dragon.  Probably Hurin leading
a force of Dragon followers against those who don't want a male
channeler about or something like that.
This could present a problem to Rand especially if the wrong side
hooks up with the renegade Aiel.

There are probably a couple of others too, but I can't think
of them at the moment.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

When we last left the story, the troop movements involved:

Sammael harrassing the borders of Tear

Rand sending all the Tairens and most of the Cairhenin south
to Tear.  Also sent were many of the Aiel; I estimate about 5
clans worth.  He kept the 4 clans that just recently joined him
in Cairhein since he did not trust them.  He also 2 of the loyal
chiefs with him so I assume that most of their clans remained
behind as well to keep an eye on the others "just in case".

The Shaido were lurking in the north but nothing aggressive.

Most of the Andorans were in Cairhein and are now parallized
due to the sudden change at the top.

----Speculation mode on----
This is how I see the situation for _LoC_.  First, there will
be a short period of time between the end of _tFoH_ and _LoC_,
as this has occured with all the other books.  (Gives time
for a another wind to build up.)  At the start of _LoC_,
Mat will arrive in Tear to take command of the forces
arrayed against Sammael and Illian.  At this point, I like
the idea of the army being a front to feint to draw attention,
allowing Rand and a small force of raiders to sneak Gate into
Illian to take out Sammael.  This would minimize the bloodshed
which is a goal of Rand.  He wants to unite the forces of Man,
not decimate it. 
Meanwhile, Rand will leave the six clans in Cairhein and
possibly Andor to guard his flank and rear as well as serve
as a ready force for an unexpected threat from elsewhere.
These forces will also provide general security and police
functions in the area.
The Mayenans will also remain in Cairhein.  Berelain seems
effective keeping the Game of Houses toned down.
The Andoran army will also be in the midst of a reorganization
in preparation for inclusion with his other forces (after Elaine
returns to take the throne if he has any sense).
(I know the maxim about dividing your forces, but I think that
a division is justified in this case.  Five clans in Tear
represents about 100K Aiel plus possibly another 80K-100K of
forces from Tear, Saldea, and Cairhein.  This should easily be sufficient
to take on the Illian army.  Also, Rand has to take on Sammael
personally since he's the only channeler powerful enough to do so.
Otherwise, Sammael will nuke his force no matter how many it numbers.
The main key for Rand is to link his forces together into a single
unit before dealing with the Seanchan.)

Anyway, at about the same time, Lan arrives in Salidar to take
on his duties as Myrelles warder.  Nynaeve faints with shock upon
hearing this, and after recovering, storms on Myrelle to find out
what in the world is going on with Lans bond.  She also demands
to know from Lan why he told Rand to give her the message that he
gave.  Lots of dramatic action here that I won't bother predicting.
The rebel A.S. army begins preparing for a march to Andor. 

This is getting long so here are some predictions in no
particular order.  (I reserve the right to change
my mind on these with only a femtoseconds notice.)

The whitecloak army marches on Andor.

Rand gets into a sword fight with Galad (why else would Rand end up
with a sword for, and I like the brother against brother storyline).
Rand barely wins, but does not kill Galad.

Elaine becomes the permanent queen of Andor.  Morgase either abdicates
when she sees Elaine on the throne already, or when Elaine shows up,
or Morgase gets killed in the attempt to retake Andor. (Your choice)

The strike on Sammael occurs early in the book and even though
Sammael gets killed, the battle was a disaster for Rand since
he is temporarly blinded and without memory.  He wanders from
Illian to Andor as a beggar.  He recovers himself in Andor
when he ends up in Aiel hands.
(Alternate theory, Rand uses beggar costume
to sneak into Illian to attack Sammael.)

Alive or dead, Lanfear will NOT show up in _LoC_.

After the fun in Illian, word reaches our friends that
the Seanchan have launched new invasions to the West.  Mat
rushes his forces to the area to counter them.  Other armies
move to the area to help fight and contain them.  One of the first
armies to encounter them is the rebel A.S. army.  Some A.S. are
captured.  Also, while the mainland armies manage to contain the
Seanchan, Mat is captured in the battle and sent back to Seanchan.
Since he is a major captain of the opposition, he is questioned
thoroughly.  In the course of his interrogation, he meets the
Daughter of the Nine Moons.

Rand hooks up with the Sea Folk and launches a counter invasion
of Seanchan to rescue Mat.  Egwene comes with him.  Her help
in recovering the captured A.S. leads to her becoming the
Amyrlin Seat.

I will go along with the current theories that Perrin will
take over the armies of the north on behalf of Rand.
But I will venture a visit to Caemlyn and a encounter
with Berelain will occur first.
This will also include a meeting of Davram Bashere.

This seems rather complicated.  I'll have to think about how
this puzzle goes together.  Besides, I'm pretty sure that I'll
be 70 percent wrong.

----Speculation mode off---

Waiting in eager anticipation of watching these theories be
shredded in new and more imaginative ways...
Michael Major